What You Need To Know
Here’s what happened around the city for the week of July 27, 2025:
- Supervisors reject challenge to supportive housing at 16th and Mission
- Saikat Chakrabarti kicks off bid to unseat Nancy Pelosi
- California home insurance rates could rise - here’s why
Recent & upcoming openings:
- Opening 1
Research:
- How popular is housing, really?
Supervisors reject challenge to supportive housing at 16th and Mission
Published July 31, 2025
https://growsf.org/news/2025-07-31-mission-housing-marvel-monster/
The Facts
The San Francisco Board of Supervisors unanimously rejected a challenge to the “Marvel in the Mission” development at 16th and Mission, according to Oscar Palma at Mission Local. The Marvel will be "one of the largest 100% affordable housing projects in San Francisco," according to the developers, MEDA and Mission Housing.
The neighbors argued that locating supportive housing near Marshall Elementary and an active open-air drug market posed risks, but the Supervisors agreed that the procedural tactic—a subdivision map appeal—was not the proper venue to address those concerns. Additionally, the project complies with all relevant zoning and public works regulations.
The Context
The site at 16th and Mission has been vacant for more than a decade. Originally, the Walgreens was slated to be replaced with a mixed-use development featuring retail and housing, along with at least 20% of the homes subsidized for low-income residents. But opposition from NIMBY groups killed the project.
The groups who opposed the original project, MEDA, and Mission Housing, won the contract to develop the Marvel project.
The GrowSF Take
Homes should have been built here long ago. Loud neighborhood groups should not be able to block homebuilding.
Saikat Chakrabarti kicks off bid to unseat Nancy Pelosi
Published July 30, 2025
https://growsf.org/news/2025-07-30-saikat-chakrabarti/
The Facts
Nancy Pelosi has a new challenger for Congress in 2026: Saikat Chakrabarti. He was a founding engineer at Stripe, where he made his fortune, but is more well known as the former chief of staff to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and architect of the Green New Deal.
According to Josh Koehn at The Standard, Chakrabarti has a "populist message, which focused on the cost of living and promoted the “abundance” housing movement."
The Context
Nancy Pelosi was first elected in 1987 and has held office for longer than many of the readers of this newsletter have been alive. She remains a powerful leader and unmatched fundraiser among the Democratic establishment, but has seen her support wane in recent years as younger voters have become more influential. The GrowSF poll from February 2025 showed her support at just 52% among San Francisco voters.
State Senator Scott Wiener is another potential challenger to Pelosi, but he has repeatedly affirmed in the press that he will not run against her.
The GrowSF Take
GrowSF focuses on local San Francisco issues, so we plan to remain neutral on federal elections like Congress. But in the spirit of informing our readers, here's our neutral analysis on the state of the race:
We think Chakrabarti might have a shot at winning—or, at least, a better shot than any challenger in many years. Her last challenger, DSA member Shahid Buttar, lost badly in 2020 with just 22% of the vote. But Chakrabarti is a well-known figure with a national profile, and he has a lot of money to spend on his campaign.
Pelosi is polling at 52%, which might sound low but is actually fairly high for a longtime incumbent. Chakrabarti may be able to chip away at her support by capturing younger voters. Indeed, his inaugural kickoff event drew lots of young supporters, but younger voters also tend to not vote in the numbers that older voters do, so Pelosi's support among older voters and universal name recognition will be a major advantage. Pelosi is sure to lock up endorsements from everybody who is anybody in the Democratic establishment and deploy her extensive network of donors to supplement her massive war chest of campaign funds.
Early campaign rhetoric indicates that Chakrabarti will run "from the left" (that is, on a more progressive platform than Pelosi), but even in San Francisco most voters are moderate. Chakrabarti would do well to focus on the issues that matter most to San Franciscans, like housing affordability, homelessness, and public safety.
Overall, it's an uphill battle for anyone running against the most powerful woman in American politics.
We look forward to a spirited campaign season, and hope that it will be a positive discussion of the issues facing San Francisco and the country.
California home insurance rates could rise - here’s why
Published July 30, 2025
https://growsf.org/news/2025-07-30-home-insurance-risk-models/
Homeowners across California have been faced with cancellations and non-renewals of home insurance policies in recent years, particularly in wildfire-prone areas. Policies were being cancelled because the insurers couldn't afford to cover the risk of wildfires, and they weren't allowed to raise rates to match the risk.
Now, California regulators have finally approved the use of forward-looking catastrophe models to determine fair and sustainable insurance rates, reports Kate Galbraith at the Chronicle reports. Until now, California required that insurance rates were based only on prior disaster data, without considering for changing risks due to climate change.
Rates will now be based on factors like location, terrain, building materials, and defensible space. That means some customers could see higher premiums, some could see reductions, and others may see no change
The Context
Most states already permit insurers to use catastrophe modeling to price for extreme weather events; California’s adoption brings it in line with national best practices on risk assessment. At the same time, the California FAIR Plan—the insurer of last resort that only covers wildfire damage—has seen its policy counts spike as carriers pull back from high-risk ZIP codes, underscoring homeowners’ limited options and the broader affordability challenge.
The GrowSF Take
Nobody likes paying more for insurance, but having no insurance is even worse. These changes allow the insurance market to start functioning properly again, which is ultimately a good thing for homeowners and for all Californians--even if it's more expensive.
Allowing insurers to properly price risk can help disincentivize building in wildfire-prone areas and encourage homeowners to take steps to mitigate their risk, such as creating defensible space around their homes. This is a critical step in ensuring that California's housing stock remains resilient in the face of climate change and other risks.
Recent & upcoming openings
A great city is constantly changing and growing, let’s celebrate what’s new!
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Research
How popular is housing, really?
Published July 28, 2025
https://growsf.org/research/2025-07-28-how-popular-is-housing/
For the past three years, GrowSF has regularly polled on the popularity of various housing proposals. From upzoning, to homeless shelters, to high rises, and the cost of living, we've been keeping track of what people want.
Now with Mayor Lurie's family zoning proposal on the table, we thought it was the right time to publicly disclose much more of our housing data. Below, you'll find our results and cross-tabs for the first time, and you'll see that housing is, in fact, super popular:
- Family Zoning commands 74% support
- High‑rises near transit earn 68% approval citywide—peaking at 81% among 18–39‑year‑olds
- 5–8 stories along major streets attracts 67% support
- Guaranteed permit approvals for code‑compliant projects is backed by 62% of respondents
These results underscore that, far from fearing big buildings or fretting about “developer giveaways,” San Franciscans want more homes—and they want the city to approve them.
First, some background
California is short 4 million more homes. Our housing shortage has raised the cost of living for everyone and forced millions of people to move to other states, like Texas and Florida, that are actually building homes. To end this shortage, bring the cost of living back under control, and make California a great place for families to live, the state has finally issued legally binding growth targets for every city in the state.
San Francisco must build 82,000 new homes between 2022 and 2030. So far, San Francisco has only built about 3,000 units. If nothing changes, we will miss our legally required goals and the state will strip San Francisco of local control over zoning, land use, and building permits. It may even withhold millions of dollars.
74% support Family Zoning: Neighborhood‑Scale Density
Mayor Lurie's family zoning plan aims to get the city back on track by allowing huge swathes of the west side of SF to subdivide and add units to their homes–for the academics, this is called "density decontrol." It also raises height limits along major corridors like Van Ness. Economists and researchers predict that it will boost land values while lowering the cost of individual homes, because more homes will be built on the same amount of land.
In July, 2025 we asked over 400 San Francisco voters how they felt about family zoning. With a margin of error of ±3.5%, we found 74% of people support the family zoning plan.
First, we established a baseline by asking if they had heard of it--roughly 35% of voters had. We then asked those 35% for their opinion:
Question: Generally speaking, do you support or oppose Mayor Daniel Lurie's "Family Zoning" plan?
We then resumed asking the question to all respondents, not just those who had heard of the plan. First, we explained what it will do, and then asked for their opinion:
Question: Mayor Lurie's Family Zoning plan will allow homeowners on the west side of San Francisco to expand their homes, add in-law or backyard units for renters, or even redevelop them into small apartment buildings, so long as they do so within existing height limits. Knowing this, do you support or oppose Mayor Daniel Lurie's Family Zoning plan?
Every demographic in every district supports Lurie's family zoning plan, by substantial margins. The lowest support is District 7, with 62% support / 19% oppose, and the highest is in District 6 with 83% support / 17% oppose.
Build Near BART
San Franciscans aren't afraid of tall buildings, despite what you may have heard. They want 20 story towers near BART stops and downtown and 6-8 stories along major streets. The major determinant of support is age - young people are wildly supportive, and 65+ only somewhat.
68% Want Highrises Near BART
It's time to build some more towers near transit! They are overwhelmingly popular across almost every single demographic in the city. Notably, Mission neighborhood groups have historically opposed growth, but our polling shows that residents of the Mission support highrises near BART at 71%!
Question: The City should allow 15- to 20-story apartment buildings within half a mile of BART stops, including throughout the Mission District.
Of course, how the question is worded matters. If voters aren't reminded that these homes will be built near high-quality transit, and only mention the neighborhood, support drops but still stays in the majority for every demographic except 65+
Question: The City should allow 15- to 20-story apartment buildings throughout the Mission District.
71% Want Highrises On the East Side
What about 30 story residential towers in SOMA, the Financial District, Dogpatch, and Mission Bay? Super popular.
Question: The Board of Supervisors may propose a change to city zoning laws in order to allow up to 30-story residential buildings in SOMA, the Financial District, Dogpatch, and Mission Bay. This would allow many more homes and offices to be built in these neighborhoods. Would you support or oppose these changes?
61% Want Denser Commercial Corridors
San Franciscans want to live in a dense, walkable city. Unfortunately, it's illegal to build in most American cities and largely illegal in San Francisco. We can – we must – change the laws to legalize housing.
Question: The Board of Supervisors may propose a change to City zoning laws which would allow 8-story buildings along major streets and near major public transit stops, and 5 to 7 stories on some commercial corridors, plus up to 20 stories along Van Ness north of Market and on California east of the Richmond district. Would you support or oppose this change?
Majority Demand The Right to Build
San Franciscans are tired of the neighborhood NIMBY sticking her nose in everyone's business. An absolutely stunningly high proportion of San Franciscans want to let people build, to let homeowners add rooms and roof decks, and for homebuilders to shake off the yoke of discretionary review.
Question: Which of the following statements comes closest to your personal opinion?
A: If a housing development proposal follows all the rules the City made in advance, City officials should be required to approve it even if neighbors don't like it
B: City officials should be allowed to change or reject any housing development proposal that neighbors don't like even if it follows all the rules the City made in advance
Voters want building permits to be approved when the builder satisfies the relevant building and safety laws, and they don't want random neighborhood NIMBYs to have the chance to stop it.
Question: When homebuilders apply to renovate or build new homes, which of the following best describes how you think those applications should be handled:
A: Permits for new housing should be automatically approved if a project meets all applicable building and safety laws
B: Permits for new housing should never be approved until residents are given a chance to appeal them
Tell your Supervisor
Tell your Supervisor that you're one of the majority of San Franciscans who want to build more housing, and that you support Mayor Lurie's family zoning plan. You can use the email template below, or write your own.
Thank you for your support!