The Facts

BART is warning that if voters reject the proposed Connect Bay Area sales-tax measure in November 2026 (0.5% in Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, and San Mateo counties; 1% in San Francisco, for 14 years), it could close up to 15 stations, eliminate the Blue Line (Daly City–Dublin/Pleasanton), and slash service.

In BART’s Feb. 12, 2026 board workshop deck, the “measure fails” Phase 1 scenario starting January 2027 includes: a 63% cut in train-hours, a 30% fare increase, a 9 p.m. nightly shutdown, and closure of 10 low-ridership stations (including San Bruno and South San Francisco). BART also estimates big knock-on traffic: for example, if riders shift to driving, congestion on sample commutes could rise by +2.7 hours/day (El Cerrito–downtown SF), +2.4 (Fremont–downtown SF), and +2.3 (Walnut Creek–downtown SF)—and a full shift could require three extra Bay Bridge lanes and one more Caldecott Tunnel lane.

The Context

BART says its pre-pandemic fare-driven model no longer works, with projected annual operating deficits of about $350–$400 million once emergency aid ends.

A January 30, 2026 MTC news release says the state and regional leaders agreed to a $590 million loan to avert major cuts at BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit in FY 2026–27 while longer-term funding is pursued.

The GrowSF Take

If BART enters a doom-loop of worse service → fewer riders → bigger deficits, SF’s recovery gets harder, if not impossible. BART and other Bay Area transit agencies have been working hard for the past few years to stabilize their finances, increase safety and cleanliness, and boost ridership. Things are looking up, but the pre-COVID assumptions are no longer true and the "ridership payment" model can no longer support the system without dramatically raising prices (which would also lower ridership). The region needs a reliable BART, and we need to pay for it while demanding better stewardship of the money.