September 2024 Mayoral Poll Results
Last Updated: October 01, 2024
The Mayoral RaceWho would win if the election were held today?
The Mayor's race is still a statistical tie with no clear winner. In GrowSF's latest poll, London Breed ekes out a win against Daniel Lurie with just 51% in the final round of ranked choice voting (RCV)—but this victory is within the 4.9% margin of error and ignores the 11% of voters who are still undecided.
Undecided voters have shrunk from 18 to 11% since our July poll. These undecided voters will decide who our next Mayor is, so we expect to see candidates spend several more million dollars to reach them over the next several weeks.
Notably, Mayor Breed dramatically increased her share of number-one votes, growing from 24% in July to 33% today. Aaron Peskin edged out Mark Farrell by a hair (though this is solidly within the margin of error). Daniel Lurie has held on to his strong second-choice vote advantage, which remains statistically unchanged since July at 23%. It currently looks like a Breed vs Lurie match up, but any of Breed, Farrell, and Lurie can still win. Peskin still lacks enough support to win in the final round of voting.
San Francisco's ranked choice voting system means voters can rank more than one candidate in order of preference. To simulate this, we asked voters who they would vote for if the election were held today, and who they would rank in second, third, and fourth place.
About the poll: GrowSF commissioned FM3 Research to run a citywide poll of 415 San Francisco voters from September 21 to September 26, 2024. The results have a ±4.9% margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Our poll question
- London Breed, San Francisco Mayor
- Ahsha Safaí, San Francisco Supervisor
- Aaron Peskin, San Francisco Supervisor
- Daniel Lurie, Nonprofit Executive
- Mark Farrell, Small Business Owner
- Someone else (Other)
To learn second, third, and fourth place rankings we asked follow-up questions "Who, if anyone, is your second/third/fourth choice for Mayor?". If the respondent indicated they were undecided or unsure, we asked, "Would you lean toward one of the other candidates or would you have no second choice?". If they responded that they'd have no second choice, we ended the question and moved on.
Candidate names were presented in random order to each respondent to avoid order bias.
How each round of voting plays out
GrowSF built a ranked choice voting simulator to model the election. The simulator uses the poll data to simulate how votes transfer from one candidate to another in each round of RCV.
Note: "Exhausted" votes are ballots where all the ranked candidates were eliminated. These ballots won't be counted in subsequent rounds.
Round 1
| Candidate | % of Active Ballots | % of All Ballots |
|---|---|---|
| Breed | 38% | 34% |
| Farrell | 19% | 17% |
| Lurie | 21% | 18% |
| Peskin | 18% | 16% |
| Safai | 4% | 4% |
| Undecided or exhausted | 11% |
Safai is eliminated because they had the fewest votes. Here's how Safai's votes transfer for the next round:
| From | To | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Safai | ||
| Breed | 16% | |
| Lurie | 18% | |
| Peskin | 51% | |
| Exhausted | 16% |
Round 2
| Candidate | % of Active Ballots | % of All Ballots |
|---|---|---|
| Breed | 39% | 34% |
| Farrell | 19% | 17% |
| Lurie | 21% | 19% |
| Peskin | 21% | 18% |
| Undecided or exhausted | 12% |
Farrell is eliminated because they had the fewest votes. Here's how Farrell's votes transfer for the next round:
| From | To | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Farrell | ||
| Breed | 17% | |
| Lurie | 60% | |
| Peskin | 10% | |
| Exhausted | 14% |
Round 3
| Candidate | % of Active Ballots | % of All Ballots |
|---|---|---|
| Breed | 43% | 37% |
| Lurie | 34% | 29% |
| Peskin | 23% | 20% |
| Undecided or exhausted | 14% |
Peskin is eliminated because they had the fewest votes. Here's how Peskin's votes transfer for the next round:
| From | To | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Peskin | ||
| Breed | 20% | |
| Lurie | 52% | |
| Exhausted | 29% |
Round 4
| Candidate | % of Active Ballots | % of All Ballots |
|---|---|---|
| Breed | 51% | 41% |
| Lurie | 49% | 39% |
| Undecided or exhausted | 20% |
Breed wins!
How do votes transfer in the first round?
| Second Choice | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breed | Farrell | Lurie | Other | Peskin | Safai | No 2nd Choice | ||
| First Choice | ||||||||
| Breed | - | 19% | 31% | 0% | 12% | 15% | 23% | |
| Farrell | 17% | - | 55% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 11% | |
| Lurie | 28% | 31% | - | 0% | 9% | 15% | 18% | |
| Other | 52% | 34% | 14% | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Peskin | 13% | 12% | 15% | 1% | - | 46% | 14% | |
| Safai | 16% | 0% | 18% | 0% | 51% | - | 16% | |
This table shows how votes transfer from one candidate to another.
For example, look at Mark Farrell's row. 17% of Farrell's voters rank London Breed as second choice, an 55% rank Daniel Lurie, 10% rank Aaron Peskin, 4% rank Ahsha Safai, and 11% don't make a second choice at all.
This race is a statistical tie.
Any of the three moderates can still win: Mayor Breed, Daniel Lurie, and Mark Farrell. While Mayor Breed has done well to build up her first-place votes, she has not been able to meaningfully distance herself from the pack. Unless she is able to boost her numbers, she will be in a tough fight to win the election.
Meanwhile, Mark Farrell, Daniel Lurie, and Aaron Peskin are all statistically tied with each other in first and second rounds of voting. Very small changes to the undecided voters could dramatically change the outcome of the election, but we don't currently see a path for Aaron Peskin to win in the final round of RCV.
Candidate favorabilityHere's how candidate favorability has changed over time
Candidate Net favorability
Candidate favorability
Candidate unfavorability
Methodology
