The Facts

The billionaire tax will be on the November 2026 ballot. It would impose a one-time 5% levy on taxpayers and trusts with covered assets above $1 billion, with 90% of the revenue set aside for health care and 10% for food assistance or education-related programs.

The state's nonpartisan fiscal analyst says the measure could raise tens of billions of dollars over several years starting in 2027, while also cutting ongoing state income-tax revenue by hundreds of millions of dollars or more each year if wealthy residents leave.

The Context

California already relies heavily on a small number of very high earners. In one widely cited LAO analysis, the top 1% of filers paid just over half of state personal income taxes, and that share is highly volatile. In a separate tax-volatility report, the LAO found capital gains are a major reason state income-tax revenue swings so sharply from year to year.

The GrowSF Take

Call it what it is: a one-time asset seizure. Everyone should pay their fair share, and sustainable tax policy requires that tax rates are stable, predictable, and hard to game. Policies like a one-time asset seizure tell entrepreneurs: don't build your company here. Some billionaires have already left the state, and more are likely to follow, whether or not the seizure ultimately ends up legal or not. This will have a big negative impact on tax revenues, innovation, and the broader economy.